United States (US): The US economy remained resilient entering June 2026, although momentum became increasingly uneven. Business surveys remained expansionary in June 2026, although momentum softened: the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June 2026 from 54.0 in May 2026, while the ISM Services PMI moderated to 54.0 in June 2026 from 54.5 in May 2026. Retail sales also continued to grow, rising 0.2% MoM and 6.7% YoY in June 2026.
Euro Area: The Euro Area economy entered July 2026 with fragile and uneven momentum. Growth conditions remained constrained by a shallow industrial cycle and cautious household spending, even as parts of domestic demand continued to provide some buffer. Overall, the Euro Area faced a difficult policy mix: weak growth, still-elevated inflation, and limited room for monetary easing.
China: Moving toward the second half of 2026, China’s economy is stabilizing, as production-side indicators improved while household demand remained subdued. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June 2026 from 50.0 in May 2026, returning to expansion territory, supported by firmer production and new orders. However, the recovery still lacked broad-based strength, with employment within the PMI survey remaining below the 50 threshold and raw material inventories still in contraction. Overall, China’s recovery remains gradual, with policymakers likely to rely on targeted liquidity support and confidence-building measures rather than aggressive broad-based easing.
Indonesia: Indonesia’s economy showed increasing signs of stress in June 2026, as the cumulative impact of rupiah depreciation, fuel price adjustments, and tightening monetary conditions began to weigh more visibly on both domestic demand and the external sector. Inflation accelerated to 3.34% (YoY), approaching the upper bound of Bank Indonesia’s target range, driven primarily by two rounds of non-subsidized fuel price increases and continued exchange rate pass-through on imported goods prices. While headline inflation remained within the target range, the upward trend in core inflation to 2.76% (YoY) signals that price pressures are becoming more broad-based and entrenched.
