Insurance Quarterly Report Kuartal II – 2026
Kinerja Asuransi Jiwa Premi: Pada Kuartal II-2026, pendapatan premi industri asuransi jiwa konvensional menurut data OJK menunjukkan pemulihan dengan tumbuh sebesar 12,93% year-on-year (YoY), terutama didorong oleh pertumbuhan produk asuransi tradisional dan juga produk PAYDI. Secara struktural, pertumbuhan premi tersebut ditopang oleh peningkatan premi bisnis baru sebesar 31,42% (YoY), baik yang berasal dari premi tunggal. […]
Indonesia’s 2025 Transfer Cut: How Far Did the Fiscal Retrenchment Spill into Regional Economy?
Subnational spending contracts by more than transfers do: across 38 provinces, consolidated expenditure falls by 7.2 percent in 2025, compared with a 4.9 percent decline in TKD receipts, while 84 percent of provinces record lower spending than in the preceding year. The absence of a clear cross-provincial GRDP relationship should not be interpreted as evidence […]
Macroeconomic Monitor September 2026: Resilient Growth, Uneven Transmission
United States (U.S.): The U.S. economy remained resilient in August 2026, supported by strong services activity, robust retail sales, firm employment conditions, and continued manufacturing expansion, although inflationary pressures persisted amid higher energy and input costs. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve raised the policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% in September, reflecting a […]
Macroeconomic Monitor August 2026: Resilient Growth, Narrowing Buffer
United States (U.S.): The U.S. economy remains resilient, with strong services activity and improving inflation providing important buffers, but leading indicators increasingly point to a gradual moderation in domestic momentum. The key risks ahead are weaker consumer and labor-market dynamics, persistent tariff and energy-cost pressures, and continued weakness in external demand and manufacturing. Euro Area: […]
Has the Relationship Between Indonesia’s GDP and the Real Economy Changed Since 2025? Evidence from Rolling Regression Analysis
Since 2025Q2, a subtle but consistent pattern has emerged in Indonesia’s macroeconomic data: headline GDP growth has persistently outpaced Bloomberg consensus forecasts, even as manufacturing activity, nominal wages, and tax revenue tell a more subdued story. This digest investigates whether the historical relationships between GDP and these underlying indicators have remained stable or whether something […]
Macroeconomic Monitor July 2026: More Resilient Than Feared, More Fragile Than Priced
United States (US): The US economy remained resilient entering June 2026, although momentum became increasingly uneven. Business surveys remained expansionary in June 2026, although momentum softened: the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June 2026 from 54.0 in May 2026, while the ISM Services PMI moderated to 54.0 in June 2026 from 54.5 in […]
Insurance Quarterly Report Kuartal I – 2026
Kinerja Asuransi Jiwa Premi: Pada Kuartal I-2026, pendapatan premi industri asuransi jiwa konvensional menurut data OJK menunjukkan pemulihan dengan tumbuh sebesar 5,36% year-on-year (YoY), terutama didorong oleh pertumbuhan produk asuransi tradisional di tengah masih terkontraksinya produk PAYDI. Secara struktural, pertumbuhan premi tersebut ditopang oleh peningkatan premi bisnis baru sebesar 17,4% (YoY), baik yang berasal dari […]
Macroeconomic Monitor June 2026: Emerging Markets Currency Under Pressure, Threatening Inflation and Growth
United States (US): The US economy remained resilient through May 2026, although momentum was increasingly uneven across sectors. Real GDP expanded by 1.6% QoQ annualized in Q1 2026 and 2.6% YoY in Q1 2026, supported by exports, private investment, consumer spending, and government expenditure. However, the second estimate was revised down from 2.0%, mainly due […]
Macroeconomic Monitor May 2026: Growth Holds, but Policy Space Narrows Under External Pressures
The U.S. economy continued to demonstrate resilience in April 2026 despite mounting external and inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.5%–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, emphasizing a cautious and data-dependent approach amid heightened uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The euro area increasingly exhibits characteristics of a […]
Indonesia’s Growth Plateau: A Sectoral and Regional Diagnosis of Structural Stagnation
Indonesia’s 5% growth pattern increasingly reflects a structural ceiling rather than a temporary cyclical pause. Consumption, commodities, and low-productivity services continue to stabilize headline GDP, but weak productivity, limited manufacturing upgrading, and uneven investment spillovers prevent the economy from moving decisively toward higher value-added activities. The sectoral evidence shows stability in relative size but volatility […]
