Navigating Turbulent Waters: The Shipping Industry and Global Economic Uncertainty
The conflict in the Middle East has flared up once more. On April 14th 2024, Iran launched an attack on Israel as retaliation for Israel’s attack on their embassy earlier in April. The escalation intensified geopolitical tensions in the region following the Red Sea crisis caused by Houthi rebels earlier this year. The escalating tensions […]
The Impact of Various Shocks to Indonesia’s Bond Yield: Lag-Augmented Local-Projection (LP)
This IFG Progress Digest is the follow-up of Economic Bulletin (EB) – Issue 44 Indonesia’s Yield Curve In 2024: Machine Learning & Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) Model where we explore as to how macroeconomic shocks influence government bond yield; We found that our four estimation scenarios for 10-year government bond yield do indeed align with […]
Historical Lessons on 1970s-1980s Oil Shocks As a Consequence of Middle East Conflicts
Historical oil shocks offer valuable insights for contemporary policymaking. The evolving nature of global energy markets and geopolitics necessitates adaptive strategies to navigate the complexities of resource-dependent economies and global market fluctuations. The 1970s-1980s oil shocks, caused by Middle East conflicts, challenged existing economic policies and led to strategic changes in energy dependence and geopolitical […]
Unveiling Total Pressure of Rupiah’s Volatility
On September 11, 2023, our report on Indonesia’s exchange rate was published, projecting a strong Rupiah with robust economic fundamentals, expected to hover around Rp14,800 – Rp15,200. However, it also warned of the potential for the Rupiah to overshoot to Rp15,600 – Rp15,900, which subsequently occurred. The report also noted the importance of Bank Indonesia’s […]
Tracking Key Rates’ Trends in Indonesia
Global inflation is expected to moderate at the end of 2023, with the possible exceptions of China, India, and Brazil. However, upside risks for inflation remain due to rising oil price and weather-related distruptions that can affect food prices. While upside risks for inflation still persist, analysts expect the U.S. Fed to maintain its rate […]
Growth Beats Market Consensus on The Back of Stronger Than Expected Fiscal Stimulus
Indonesian economy grew by 5.17% y-y in 2Q23, higher than market expectations of 5.0%. This is also outperforming our initial forecasts of only ±4.9% for 2Q2023. But, there are palpable signals of GDP slowdown, with the relatively weak economic performance likely felt in the second half this year on potential pullback in consumption, investment, and […]
Can Inflation Be Better Measured With AI?
Tingginya tekanan inflasi yang terjadi di berbagai negara menimbulkan kekhawatiran bagi seluruh pihak, baik regulator hingga pelaku bisnis. Fenomena ini dapat menurunkan daya beli hingga menekan performa perekonomian, termasuk sektor asuransi; Proyeksi inflasi dengan menggunakan Artificial Intelligence (AI) menunjukkan hasil yang cukup baik. Angka tersebut dapat berperan sebagai Early Warning System (EWS) dalam mengambil keputusan […]
Are We Out of The Woods Yet?
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal ke-4 2023 mencatatkan level tertinggi semenjak 2013, akan tetapi dengan struktur yang hampir setengahnya didorong oleh komponen Net Export dan Konsumsi Rumah Tangga yang masih lesu. Program hilirisasi dan Undang-Undang Cipta Kerja (UUCK) memiliki peran penting guna menjadi sumber baru pertumbuhan ekonomi yang kuat dan sustain
Forecasting JIBOR Sebagai Referensi Suku Bunga Pinjaman di Indonesia
• JIBOR merupakan indikator yang umum digunakan sebagai tingkat suku bunga benchmark dalam bisnis di Indonesia untuk menerbitkan surat utang. Dengan demikian, indikator ini menjadi relevan untuk diprediksi; • Terdapat co-movement yang cukup kuat antara pergerakan JIBOR dan tingkat inflasi domestik serta suku bunga Fed rate. Studi ini menemukan pergerakan BI 7DRRR (BI 7-Day Reverse […]
Real-Time Tracking Indonesia’s GDP: Machine Learning
Extreme volatility, unexpected schocks, dan ketidakstabilan kondisi ekonomi membuat real-time tracking kondisi ekonomi Indonesia menjadi sangat krusial. Menunggu rilis data ±35 hari setelah kuartal selesai atau ±90 hari setelah bulan pertama berakhir tidak lagi memadai; Real-time tracking Indonesia’s GDP dengan menggunakan model machine learning dan ekonometrik terbukti menghasilkan angka yang cukup akurat. Angka tersebut dapat […]
