Macroeconomic Monitor September 2025
United States The US expansion continues to be anchored by services and household demand while manufacturing lags. S&P Global Services PMI remained firmly expansionary in August 2025, cushioning headline growth against an ISM Manufacturing print below 50 that still signals a contracting factory sector. Inflation progress is uneven: headline CPI re-firmed to 2.9% YoY on […]
Indonesia’s Q2 2025 GDP Commentary: Not So Much About Data Integrity, but How We Interpret It
• Real GDP grew 5.12% YoY in Q2 2025 and 4.04% QoQ, marking the strongest Q2 sequential rebound of recent years. The pattern is partly seasonal, Q2 typically jumps after a soft Q1, but 2025’s QoQ spike exceeded the ~3.7–3.8% norms, so the surprise reflects a cyclical upswing rather than a structural improvement. • Several […]
Macroeconomic Monitor August 2025
United States The US economy in July 2025 showed diverging momentum as manufacturing slipped into contraction (PMI 49.8) and industrial production weakened across both durable and nondurable goods, while services expanded strongly (PMI 55.7; Composite 55.1), making services becomes key driver of growth. Inflation eased slightly to 2.7% YoY, close to the Fed’s target, though […]
Macroeconomic Monitor July 2025
United States (US) economy shows a mixed outlook, with strong domestic demand driven by the services sector, but increasing pressure from external trade. The trade deficit has widened notably following the implementation of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which have begun to raise prices on certain consumer goods. While the overall growth trajectory remains moderate, downside risks […]
Insurance Quarterly Report: Kuartal I – 2025
Kinerja Asuransi Jiwa Premi: Pada kuartal I tahun 2025, industri asuransi jiwa mencatat pertumbuhan pendapatan premi yang terbatas, dengan peningkatan sebesar 1,5% YoY menjadi Rp. 40,7 triliun. Pertumbuhan ini turut ditopang oleh kinerja positif saluran distribusi employee benefit consultant, yang terkait erat dengan produk asuransi kesehatan kumpulan, seiring aktivitas repricing untuk merespons tekanan klaim yang […]
Macroeconomic Monitor June 2025
The escalating Israel–Iran conflict, with risks of U.S. involvement and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatens global energy supply chains and increases geopolitical and commodity market volatility. The U.S. economy shows sectoral divergence, with resilient services and labor markets offset by weak manufacturing; persistent inflation and global risks are prompting the Fed to […]
Macroeconomic monitor May 2025
Macroeconomic LandscapeGlobal economic signals in mid-2025 remained mixed. The US kept interest rates steady as inflation eased slightly, while the Eurozone lowered rates amid subdued spending. China maintained growth but faced cooling momentum in industrial output and retail demand. In Indonesia, Q1 growth reached 4.87% year-on-year, supported by festive consumption, but quarterly contraction and weaker […]
Macroeconomic Monitor April 2025
US Economy : The U.S. economy showed signs of resilience in early 2025, although underlying pressures remain. The Fed maintained its policy rate at 4.25%-4.5% amid concerns that tariff-related inflation may persist longer than initially projected, despite growing downside risks to employment. GDP growth slowed to 2.4% (year-on-year/yoy) in Q4 2024 from 3.1% (yoy) in […]
What The US Quietly Controls—But Never Talks About
From macro perspectives, since the announcement of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs in April 2025, discourse surrounding the trade war has largely focused on goods while virtually ignoring the trade in services. This oversight is crucial, as services have become central to global commerce, thanks to rapid technological advances and deregulation. Today’s services encompass everything from digital […]
Insurance Quarterly Report: Kuartal IV- 2024
Kinerja Asuransi Jiwa Premi: Pada tahun 2024, industri asuransi jiwa mencatat pertumbuhan premi yang tipis sebesar 3,4% YoY menjadi Rp162,7 triliun, didorong oleh kenaikan dari kanal distribusi utama, yaitu bancassurance dan agen asuransi. Sementara itu, kanal digital tumbuh cukup pesat, namun kontribusinya terhadap total premi industri masih relatif kecil. Klaim: Pada tahun 2024, total klaim […]
