Macroeconomic Monitor July 2026: More Resilient Than Feared, More Fragile Than Priced
United States (US): The US economy remained resilient entering June 2026, although momentum became increasingly uneven. Business surveys remained expansionary in June 2026, although momentum softened: the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June 2026 from 54.0 in May 2026, while the ISM Services PMI moderated to 54.0 in June 2026 from 54.5 in […]
Macroeconomic Monitor June 2026: Emerging Markets Currency Under Pressure, Threatening Inflation and Growth
United States (US): The US economy remained resilient through May 2026, although momentum was increasingly uneven across sectors. Real GDP expanded by 1.6% QoQ annualized in Q1 2026 and 2.6% YoY in Q1 2026, supported by exports, private investment, consumer spending, and government expenditure. However, the second estimate was revised down from 2.0%, mainly due […]
Macroeconomic Monitor May 2026: Growth Holds, but Policy Space Narrows Under External Pressures
The U.S. economy continued to demonstrate resilience in April 2026 despite mounting external and inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.5%–3.75% for a third consecutive meeting, emphasizing a cautious and data-dependent approach amid heightened uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The euro area increasingly exhibits characteristics of a […]
Macroeconomic Monitor April 2026: Domestic Demand Holds, but External Risks Keep Policy Defensive
United States (US) The US economy showed increasing signs of moderation in March 2026, with diverging sectoral performance and rising inflationary pressures. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI remained resilient at 52.3, supported by solid domestic demand and inventory buildup, while the S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 49.8, marking its first contraction in […]
Macroeconomic Monitor March 2026: Rising Geopolitical Tensions amid Cyclical Domestic Consumption Surge
US – Iran War and Shocks to Energy Prices: The United States (US) – Iran war transmits globally through large-scale disruptions in energy and trade flows. The Strait of Hormuz carries around 20 million barrels of oil per day, about one-third of global seaborne crude, plus one-quarter of natural gas liquids and one-fifth of LNG […]
Macroeconomic Monitor February 2026 Volatility Without Growth: Structural Risks in a Fragmenting Global Economy
United States (U.S.): The U.S. economy started 2026 on a firm note. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.4 according to S&P Global and 52.6 based on the Institute for Supply Management, marking the first expansion in a year, while services PMI edged up to 52.7 from 52.5. However, survey responses highlighted that the […]
Macroeconomic Monitor January 2026: High Prices, High Uncertainty: What Is the Market Really Telling Us?
United States: U.S. economic activity remained resilient in late 2025, with GDP growth accelerating to 4.3% (year-on-year / YoY) in Q3-2025, supported by strong consumer spending (+3.5%, YoY), a rebound in exports (+9.6%, YoY), and higher government spending. The services sector continued to expand, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 54.4 in December, while […]
Macroeconomic Monitor December 2025: Soft Landings, Hard Choices: A Year-End Macro Reflection and Global Economy in 2026
United States: Recent indicators show the US economy remains on an expansionary path but is gradually losing momentum. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.2 in November 2025 from 52.5 in October 2025, while the Services PMI declined to 54.1 from 54.8, both still signalling moderate growth. Manufacturing output stayed firm but was increasingly […]
Macroeconomic Monitor November 2025: A Month of Mixed Signals and Selective Recovery
United States Recent data point to a U.S. economy that is still expanding but gradually cooling. On the activity side, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.5 in October 2025, edging up from 52.0 in September 2025, while the Services PMI rose to 54.8 from 54.2, indicating continued but moderate growth in both factory […]
Macroeconomic Monitor October 2025: Steady Hands in Unsteady Winds
United States : The latest U.S. data suggest that economic momentum is beginning to soften, with manufacturing activity easing, the labor market showing early signs of stagnation, and inflationary pressures starting to moderate. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) slipped to 52.0 in September 2025. In contrast, the S&P Global U.S. Services […]
