Macroeconomic Monitor February 2026 Volatility Without Growth: Structural Risks in a Fragmenting Global Economy
United States (U.S.): The U.S. economy started 2026 on a firm note. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.4 according to S&P Global and 52.6 based on the Institute for Supply Management, marking the first expansion in a year, while services PMI edged up to 52.7 from 52.5. However, survey responses highlighted that the […]
Macroeconomic Monitor January 2026: High Prices, High Uncertainty: What Is the Market Really Telling Us?
United States: U.S. economic activity remained resilient in late 2025, with GDP growth accelerating to 4.3% (year-on-year / YoY) in Q3-2025, supported by strong consumer spending (+3.5%, YoY), a rebound in exports (+9.6%, YoY), and higher government spending. The services sector continued to expand, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 54.4 in December, while […]
Macroeconomic Monitor December 2025: Soft Landings, Hard Choices: A Year-End Macro Reflection and Global Economy in 2026
United States: Recent indicators show the US economy remains on an expansionary path but is gradually losing momentum. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.2 in November 2025 from 52.5 in October 2025, while the Services PMI declined to 54.1 from 54.8, both still signalling moderate growth. Manufacturing output stayed firm but was increasingly […]
Macroeconomic Monitor November 2025: A Month of Mixed Signals and Selective Recovery
United States Recent data point to a U.S. economy that is still expanding but gradually cooling. On the activity side, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.5 in October 2025, edging up from 52.0 in September 2025, while the Services PMI rose to 54.8 from 54.2, indicating continued but moderate growth in both factory […]
Macroeconomic Monitor October 2025: Steady Hands in Unsteady Winds
United States : The latest U.S. data suggest that economic momentum is beginning to soften, with manufacturing activity easing, the labor market showing early signs of stagnation, and inflationary pressures starting to moderate. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) slipped to 52.0 in September 2025. In contrast, the S&P Global U.S. Services […]
Macroeconomic Monitor September 2025
United States The US expansion continues to be anchored by services and household demand while manufacturing lags. S&P Global Services PMI remained firmly expansionary in August 2025, cushioning headline growth against an ISM Manufacturing print below 50 that still signals a contracting factory sector. Inflation progress is uneven: headline CPI re-firmed to 2.9% YoY on […]
Macroeconomic Monitor August 2025
United States The US economy in July 2025 showed diverging momentum as manufacturing slipped into contraction (PMI 49.8) and industrial production weakened across both durable and nondurable goods, while services expanded strongly (PMI 55.7; Composite 55.1), making services becomes key driver of growth. Inflation eased slightly to 2.7% YoY, close to the Fed’s target, though […]
Macroeconomic Monitor July 2025
United States (US) economy shows a mixed outlook, with strong domestic demand driven by the services sector, but increasing pressure from external trade. The trade deficit has widened notably following the implementation of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which have begun to raise prices on certain consumer goods. While the overall growth trajectory remains moderate, downside risks […]
Macroeconomic Monitor June 2025
The escalating Israel–Iran conflict, with risks of U.S. involvement and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatens global energy supply chains and increases geopolitical and commodity market volatility. The U.S. economy shows sectoral divergence, with resilient services and labor markets offset by weak manufacturing; persistent inflation and global risks are prompting the Fed to […]
Macroeconomic monitor May 2025
Macroeconomic LandscapeGlobal economic signals in mid-2025 remained mixed. The US kept interest rates steady as inflation eased slightly, while the Eurozone lowered rates amid subdued spending. China maintained growth but faced cooling momentum in industrial output and retail demand. In Indonesia, Q1 growth reached 4.87% year-on-year, supported by festive consumption, but quarterly contraction and weaker […]
