Macroeconomic Monitor November 2025: A Month of Mixed Signals and Selective Recovery
United States Recent data point to a U.S. economy that is still expanding but gradually cooling. On the activity side, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.5 in October 2025, edging up from 52.0 in September 2025, while the Services PMI rose to 54.8 from 54.2, indicating continued but moderate growth in both factory […]
Macroeconomic Monitor October 2025: Steady Hands in Unsteady Winds
United States : The latest U.S. data suggest that economic momentum is beginning to soften, with manufacturing activity easing, the labor market showing early signs of stagnation, and inflationary pressures starting to moderate. The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) slipped to 52.0 in September 2025. In contrast, the S&P Global U.S. Services […]
Macroeconomic Monitor September 2025
United States The US expansion continues to be anchored by services and household demand while manufacturing lags. S&P Global Services PMI remained firmly expansionary in August 2025, cushioning headline growth against an ISM Manufacturing print below 50 that still signals a contracting factory sector. Inflation progress is uneven: headline CPI re-firmed to 2.9% YoY on […]
Macroeconomic Monitor August 2025
United States The US economy in July 2025 showed diverging momentum as manufacturing slipped into contraction (PMI 49.8) and industrial production weakened across both durable and nondurable goods, while services expanded strongly (PMI 55.7; Composite 55.1), making services becomes key driver of growth. Inflation eased slightly to 2.7% YoY, close to the Fed’s target, though […]
Macroeconomic Monitor July 2025
United States (US) economy shows a mixed outlook, with strong domestic demand driven by the services sector, but increasing pressure from external trade. The trade deficit has widened notably following the implementation of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which have begun to raise prices on certain consumer goods. While the overall growth trajectory remains moderate, downside risks […]
Macroeconomic Monitor June 2025
The escalating Israel–Iran conflict, with risks of U.S. involvement and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatens global energy supply chains and increases geopolitical and commodity market volatility. The U.S. economy shows sectoral divergence, with resilient services and labor markets offset by weak manufacturing; persistent inflation and global risks are prompting the Fed to […]
Macroeconomic monitor May 2025
Macroeconomic LandscapeGlobal economic signals in mid-2025 remained mixed. The US kept interest rates steady as inflation eased slightly, while the Eurozone lowered rates amid subdued spending. China maintained growth but faced cooling momentum in industrial output and retail demand. In Indonesia, Q1 growth reached 4.87% year-on-year, supported by festive consumption, but quarterly contraction and weaker […]
Macroeconomic Monitor April 2025
US Economy : The U.S. economy showed signs of resilience in early 2025, although underlying pressures remain. The Fed maintained its policy rate at 4.25%-4.5% amid concerns that tariff-related inflation may persist longer than initially projected, despite growing downside risks to employment. GDP growth slowed to 2.4% (year-on-year/yoy) in Q4 2024 from 3.1% (yoy) in […]
Macroeconomic Monitor March 2025
US Economy: The US Services PMI dropped to 51.0 in February 2025 from January 2025’s 52.9, above the flash estimate of 49.7 yet below expectations of 53, signalling the slowest growth in services sector since November 2023. The US annual inflation rate eased to 2.8% YoY. While the consumer price index (CPI) has seen a […]
Macroeconomic Monitor February 2025
In January 2025, the U.S. economy showed resilience, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 51.2, signaling expansion, while the Services PMI declined to 52.9 due to post-holiday normalization. The labor market remained robust as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0%, with 143,000 new jobs, primarily in healthcare and retail. Inflation increased to 3.0% YoY, driven […]
