Macroeconomic Monitor August 2024 – Global Economic Uncertainty: Balancing Growth and Risks Across Major Economies
The U.S. economy is growing steadily, but inflation is easing slightly, indicating the impact of ongoing Federal Reserve policies. The labor market is showing signs of slowing, which could affect future spending. The Eurozone is seeing modest growth, but Germany’s economic difficulties and slowing manufacturing are causing concerns. Inflation is rising slightly, and overall economic […]
Fenomena Penurunan Kelas Menengah di Indonesia: Brief Overview dari Dampak pada Sektor Asuransi
Jumlah populasi dan daya beli kelas menengah Indonesia terus tergerus pada periode pasca-pandemi. Hal ini ditunjukkan oleh penurunan proporsi kelas menengah dan peningkatan proporsi calon kelas menengah dan rentan serta menurunnya kontribusi konsumsi kelas menengah terhadap keseluruhan konsumsi masyarakat. Fenomena ini memiliki implikasi yang besar terhadap industri asuransi jiwa dan asuransi umum. Salah satu dampak […]
Indonesia-China Economic Relationship: How to Mitigate the Potential Downturn?
China is expected to experience an economic slowdown in the years to come, stemming from several factors including but not limited to high debt burden, property crisis, intensifying government control, and aging population. Given the entanglement to the Chinese economy in terms of international trade and investment, Indonesia must pursue new growth avenues in the […]
Decoding Global Portfolio Investment Flow Post-COVID19 Pandemic: Does Market Efficiency Matter?
In this paper, we try to uncover the pattern of global portfolio investment flow after the COVID-19 pandemic. Particularly, we are interested to see whether or not the majority of portfolio investments go to inefficient markets during this period. Based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) by Fama (1970), investors should go to weak-form (inefficient) […]
Technical Trend Analyses of Indonesia Stock Exchange Index
The stock exchange index is one of the primary barometers for the economic health of a country. The index encapsulates the performances of a wide spectrum of economic sectors, and it vividly reflects the country’s economic condition. In this paper, we apply several commonly used approaches to conduct technical trend analyses of the IDX and […]
The Impact of Various Shocks to Indonesia’s Bond Yield: Lag-Augmented Local-Projection (LP)
This IFG Progress Digest is the follow-up of Economic Bulletin (EB) – Issue 44 Indonesia’s Yield Curve In 2024: Machine Learning & Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) Model where we explore as to how macroeconomic shocks influence government bond yield; We found that our four estimation scenarios for 10-year government bond yield do indeed align with […]
Indonesia’s Yield Curve In 2024: Machine Learning & Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) Model
The term structure of the Yield Curve is one of the most essential tools in financial economics. All agents, both government and private firms, set them as a benchmark for implementing their policy and business decision, respectively. The yield curve can be one of the reasons for prosperous firms/countries or their declines (as evident in […]
Reviving Takaful: Reflections on the Islamic New Year
Authors: Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman [1] and Nada Serpina [2] As the Islamic New Year approaches, it is an opportune time to reflect on the principles of hijrah (migration) and their application in the realm of economics, particularly within the context of the growing Shariah economy. In Islamic teachings, hijrah is divided into two aspects. The […]
Addressing Challenges in Indonesia’s Pension Funds
Authors: Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman[1] and Mohammad Alvin Prabowosunu[2] Financial sector is seen as an important catalyst to spur economic development through capital accumulation and technological progress by increasing the savings rate, mobilizing and pooling savings, as well as optimizing the allocation of capital. In a developing country like Indonesia, while the pace of development should […]
ASEAN must nurture growth at epicenter
Penulis: Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman [1], Tarisha Yuliana [2] As ASEAN commemorates its 56th anniversary this year, Indonesia as the chair is highlighting the theme of “ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth”. This theme encapsulates both promise and challenge. ASEAN nations grapple with disparities in total factor productivity (TFP), a key economic indicator that measures the ratio of […]
