Macroeconomic Monitor July 2026: More Resilient Than Feared, More Fragile Than Priced
United States (US): The US economy remained resilient entering June 2026, although momentum became increasingly uneven. Business surveys remained expansionary in June 2026, although momentum softened: the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June 2026 from 54.0 in May 2026, while the ISM Services PMI moderated to 54.0 in June 2026 from 54.5 in […]
Indonesia’s Growth Plateau: A Sectoral and Regional Diagnosis of Structural Stagnation
Indonesia’s 5% growth pattern increasingly reflects a structural ceiling rather than a temporary cyclical pause. Consumption, commodities, and low-productivity services continue to stabilize headline GDP, but weak productivity, limited manufacturing upgrading, and uneven investment spillovers prevent the economy from moving decisively toward higher value-added activities. The sectoral evidence shows stability in relative size but volatility […]
Indonesia’s Stock Market Dynamics in 2025: Does Free Float Influence Stock Price Movements?
The Jakarta Composite Index started 2025 below its reference level, bottomed slightly below 6,000 in March–mid April 2025, then recovered into the 6,600 – 7,000 range before consolidating mid July 2025. A decisive breakout occurred in late July 2025, followed by an orderly uptrend through August–November 2025 with the index spending most of the period […]
Macroeconomic Monitor December 2025: Soft Landings, Hard Choices: A Year-End Macro Reflection and Global Economy in 2026
United States: Recent indicators show the US economy remains on an expansionary path but is gradually losing momentum. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.2 in November 2025 from 52.5 in October 2025, while the Services PMI declined to 54.1 from 54.8, both still signalling moderate growth. Manufacturing output stayed firm but was increasingly […]
Gold as a Hedging and Alternative Investment Instrument: An Empirical Analysis Using Mean-Variance Optimization
The study evaluates whether gold is a suitable and effective portfolio asset for Indonesia, focusing on its roles as hedge, safe haven, and diversifier. It frames the question in an Indonesia-centric setting, so results translate into allocation policy and product design. A unified monthly dataset from CEIC and Bloomberg underpins the analysis. The study links […]
Macroeconomic Monitor September 2025
United States The US expansion continues to be anchored by services and household demand while manufacturing lags. S&P Global Services PMI remained firmly expansionary in August 2025, cushioning headline growth against an ISM Manufacturing print below 50 that still signals a contracting factory sector. Inflation progress is uneven: headline CPI re-firmed to 2.9% YoY on […]
Indonesia’s Q2 2025 GDP Commentary: Not So Much About Data Integrity, but How We Interpret It
• Real GDP grew 5.12% YoY in Q2 2025 and 4.04% QoQ, marking the strongest Q2 sequential rebound of recent years. The pattern is partly seasonal, Q2 typically jumps after a soft Q1, but 2025’s QoQ spike exceeded the ~3.7–3.8% norms, so the surprise reflects a cyclical upswing rather than a structural improvement. • Several […]
Macroeconomic Monitor March 2025
US Economy: The US Services PMI dropped to 51.0 in February 2025 from January 2025’s 52.9, above the flash estimate of 49.7 yet below expectations of 53, signalling the slowest growth in services sector since November 2023. The US annual inflation rate eased to 2.8% YoY. While the consumer price index (CPI) has seen a […]
Macroeconomic Monitor August 2024 – Global Economic Uncertainty: Balancing Growth and Risks Across Major Economies
The U.S. economy is growing steadily, but inflation is easing slightly, indicating the impact of ongoing Federal Reserve policies. The labor market is showing signs of slowing, which could affect future spending. The Eurozone is seeing modest growth, but Germany’s economic difficulties and slowing manufacturing are causing concerns. Inflation is rising slightly, and overall economic […]
Fenomena Penurunan Kelas Menengah di Indonesia: Brief Overview dari Dampak pada Sektor Asuransi
Jumlah populasi dan daya beli kelas menengah Indonesia terus tergerus pada periode pasca-pandemi. Hal ini ditunjukkan oleh penurunan proporsi kelas menengah dan peningkatan proporsi calon kelas menengah dan rentan serta menurunnya kontribusi konsumsi kelas menengah terhadap keseluruhan konsumsi masyarakat. Fenomena ini memiliki implikasi yang besar terhadap industri asuransi jiwa dan asuransi umum. Salah satu dampak […]
