Technical Trend Analyses of Indonesia Stock Exchange Index

The stock exchange index is one of the primary barometers for the economic health of a country. The index encapsulates the performances of a wide spectrum of economic sectors, and it vividly reflects the country’s economic condition. In this paper, we apply several commonly used approaches to conduct technical trend analyses of the IDX and […]

Indonesia’s Yield Curve In 2024: Machine Learning & Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) Model

The term structure of the Yield Curve is one of the most essential tools in financial economics. All agents, both government and private firms, set them as a benchmark for implementing their policy and business decision, respectively. The yield curve can be one of the reasons for prosperous firms/countries or their declines (as evident in […]

Reviving Takaful: Reflections on the Islamic New Year

Authors: Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman [1] and Nada Serpina [2] As the Islamic New Year approaches, it is an opportune time to reflect on the principles of hijrah (migration) and their application in the realm of economics, particularly within the context of the growing Shariah economy.  In Islamic teachings, hijrah is divided into two aspects. The […]

Addressing Challenges in Indonesia’s Pension Funds

Authors: Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman[1] and Mohammad Alvin Prabowosunu[2]   Financial sector is seen as an important catalyst to spur economic development through capital accumulation and technological progress by increasing the savings rate, mobilizing and pooling savings, as well as optimizing the allocation of capital. In a developing country like Indonesia, while the pace of development should […]

ASEAN must nurture growth at epicenter

Penulis: Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman [1], Tarisha Yuliana [2] As ASEAN commemorates its 56th anniversary this year, Indonesia as the chair is highlighting the theme of “ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth”. This theme encapsulates both promise and challenge. ASEAN nations grapple with disparities in total factor productivity (TFP), a key economic indicator that measures the ratio of […]

Addressing challenges in Indonesia’s pension funds

Penulis: Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman [1], M. Alvin Prabowosunu  [2] The financial sector is an important catalyst to spur economic development through capital accumulation and technological progress. It does this by increasing the savings rate and mobilizing and pooling savings, as well as optimizing the allocation of capital. In a developing country like Indonesia, while the […]

Unveiling Total Pressure of Rupiah’s Volatility

On September 11, 2023, our report on Indonesia’s exchange rate was published, projecting a strong Rupiah with robust economic fundamentals, expected to hover around Rp14,800 – Rp15,200. However, it also warned of the potential for the Rupiah to overshoot to Rp15,600 – Rp15,900, which subsequently occurred. The report also noted the importance of Bank Indonesia’s […]

Indonesia’s Exchange Rate: Fundamental Value & Path

Indonesia’s small-open economy is highly susceptible to external shocks, affecting Rupiah (IDR), considerably. Episodes like the Asian Financial Crisis and recent monetary tightening post COVID-19 have exposed the vulnerability of rupiah, often making it one of the most adversely affected emerging market currencies. Bank Indonesia’s mandate as written in The Law of The Republic of […]

Tracking Key Rates’ Trends in Indonesia

Global inflation is expected to moderate at the end of 2023, with the possible exceptions of China, India, and Brazil. However, upside risks for inflation remain due to rising oil price and weather-related distruptions that can affect food prices. While upside risks for inflation still persist, analysts expect the U.S. Fed to maintain its rate […]