It is undeniable that SMEs play a crucial role in the Indonesian economy. The presence of microcredit/microfinancing, such as KUR, which can reach small and medium-sized communities in Indonesia, provides a solution for SMEs to solve financing problems for their businesses. The economic impact of the Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR) program is minimal at the macro level. While MSMEs contribute significantly to the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), with a 1% increase in MSME contribution leading to a 1% rise in GRDP, the effect of KUR on this contribution is small. A 1% increase in KUR disbursement correlates with only a 0.2% increase in MSME’s GRDP contribution. Fixed effect estimation shows that a 1 million rupiah increase in KUR disbursement raises the average monthly expenditure of business-owning households by 0.3-1%, but this effect diminishes with additional controls and year-fixed effects. At the district level, the impact of KUR disbursement on household expenditure is also insignificant, with less than a 0.01% rise in average expenditure per million increases in KUR disbursement. Commercial credit is found to outperform KUR in providing loans, both at household and village levels. KUR borrowers tend to have lower expenditure/income compared to commercial credit borrowers (with similar characteristics matched with the covariates). Villages that only have KUR facilities have a lower industry count of around 50 compared to villages that have commercial credit facilities. But, as before, the result is not statistically significant. We can only infer this as an indicative result that commercial credit does outperform KUR in giving access to financing. Using SUSENAS survey data from 2014 and 2023, the analysis shows that KUR success rates peak at ages 40-49, with lower rates for younger recipients (20-30 years old). Higher education levels significantly improve success, though the rate for tertiary-educated recipients dropped from over 50% in the first generation to around 40% in the second. There are substantial provincial disparities in KUR disbursement, with Sulawesi Selatan, Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, and Jawa Timur receiving the most, while success rates are higher outside Java. Priority sectors like agriculture, accommodation, and plantation have seen significant disbursement increases, but the success rate in agriculture has declined despite increased funding.
Toward Stronger Financial Industry in Indonesia