Macroeconomic Monitor August 2026: Resilient Growth, Narrowing Buffer
United States (U.S.): The U.S. economy remains resilient, with strong services activity and improving inflation providing important buffers, but leading indicators increasingly point to a gradual moderation in domestic momentum. The key risks ahead are weaker consumer and labor-market dynamics, persistent tariff and energy-cost pressures, and continued weakness in external demand and manufacturing. Euro Area: […]
Macroeconomic Monitor July 2026: More Resilient Than Feared, More Fragile Than Priced
United States (US): The US economy remained resilient entering June 2026, although momentum became increasingly uneven. Business surveys remained expansionary in June 2026, although momentum softened: the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June 2026 from 54.0 in May 2026, while the ISM Services PMI moderated to 54.0 in June 2026 from 54.5 in […]
Macroeconomic Monitor June 2026: Emerging Markets Currency Under Pressure, Threatening Inflation and Growth
United States (US): The US economy remained resilient through May 2026, although momentum was increasingly uneven across sectors. Real GDP expanded by 1.6% QoQ annualized in Q1 2026 and 2.6% YoY in Q1 2026, supported by exports, private investment, consumer spending, and government expenditure. However, the second estimate was revised down from 2.0%, mainly due […]
Macroeconomic Monitor April 2026: Domestic Demand Holds, but External Risks Keep Policy Defensive
United States (US) The US economy showed increasing signs of moderation in March 2026, with diverging sectoral performance and rising inflationary pressures. The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI remained resilient at 52.3, supported by solid domestic demand and inventory buildup, while the S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 49.8, marking its first contraction in […]
Macroeconomic Monitor November 2025: A Month of Mixed Signals and Selective Recovery
United States Recent data point to a U.S. economy that is still expanding but gradually cooling. On the activity side, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.5 in October 2025, edging up from 52.0 in September 2025, while the Services PMI rose to 54.8 from 54.2, indicating continued but moderate growth in both factory […]
Macroeconomic Monitor September 2025
United States The US expansion continues to be anchored by services and household demand while manufacturing lags. S&P Global Services PMI remained firmly expansionary in August 2025, cushioning headline growth against an ISM Manufacturing print below 50 that still signals a contracting factory sector. Inflation progress is uneven: headline CPI re-firmed to 2.9% YoY on […]
Macroeconomic Monitor March 2025
US Economy: The US Services PMI dropped to 51.0 in February 2025 from January 2025’s 52.9, above the flash estimate of 49.7 yet below expectations of 53, signalling the slowest growth in services sector since November 2023. The US annual inflation rate eased to 2.8% YoY. While the consumer price index (CPI) has seen a […]
Macroeconomic Monitor February 2025
In January 2025, the U.S. economy showed resilience, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 51.2, signaling expansion, while the Services PMI declined to 52.9 due to post-holiday normalization. The labor market remained robust as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0%, with 143,000 new jobs, primarily in healthcare and retail. Inflation increased to 3.0% YoY, driven […]
Macroeconomic Monitor January 2025
In December 2024, the U.S. economy showed signs of resilience and growth across key sectors, with the Manufacturing and Services PMI reflecting positive momentum. The labor market remained robust as the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% (year-on-year/ yoy), driven by strong job growth in healthcare and retail. Inflation rose to 2.9% (yoy), driven by low […]
Macroeconomic Monitor December 2024 – Looking Back, Moving Forward: Macroeconomic Insights at the End of 2024 and What to Expect at the Start of 2025
The United States economy in late 2024 showed signs of cautious optimism. Consumer confidence improved, reaching 111.7 in November, supported by labor market strength. Manufacturing stabilized, with PMI at 49.7, and inflation remained at 2.7% year-on-year. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut to 4.25%–4.5% balanced growth with inflation control, though it caused market fluctuations, including rising […]
