In January 2025, the U.S. economy showed resilience, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 51.2, signaling expansion, while the Services PMI declined to 52.9 due to post-holiday normalization. The labor market remained robust as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0%, with 143,000 new jobs, primarily in healthcare and retail. Inflation increased to 3.0% YoY, driven by transportation costs, while housing inflation eased slightly. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, citing inflation risks and policy uncertainties.
The Euro Area’s inflation rose to 2.5% in January 2025, with energy costs rebounding, while consumer confidence saw marginal improvement despite ongoing economic uncertainty. Retail sales increased by 1.9% YoY but declined 0.2% MoM, reflecting softening demand. The region’s trade surplus stood at €50.5 billion, boosted by higher goods and services exports. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3%, with Spain reporting the highest jobless rate at 10.6%, while Germany maintained the lowest at 3.4%.
China’s GDP growth reached 5.4% in Q4 2024, the fastest in over a year, supported by stimulus measures. However, domestic demand remained weak, and trade tensions with the U.S. posed risks for 2025. Inflation rose to 1.31% in January 2025, driven by soaring food prices, particularly pork, while the PPI contracted by 2.3% YoY, reflecting continued industrial weakness. The Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly to 50.1, while the Services PMI declined to 51.0, signaling a slowdown in new business growth.
Inflation fell to 0.76% in January 2025 due to lower electricity tariffs and airfare costs, while core inflation edged up to 2.36% YoY. The Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.9, indicating expansion, while consumer confidence remained stable. Bank Indonesia cut its benchmark rate to 5.75% but held it steady in February to support the rupiah. The current account deficit widened to $8.9 billion, while foreign reserves rose to $155.7 billion, helping to stabilize the currency amid global risks.
