Macroeconomic Monitor November 2024 – Global and Domestic Overview: Resilient Growth, Inflation Trends, and Policy Shifts Across Key Economies
The US economy experienced a slight slowdown in Q3 2024, with GDP growth at 2.8% QoQ (down from 3.0% in Q2), driven by robust consumer and government spending despite declining private investment and higher import growth. Manufacturing remained in contraction with the PMI at 48.5 in October, as industrial production and durable goods orders continued […]
Macroeconomic Monitor October 2024 – The World After Rate Cuts: Declining Consumer Confidence and Disruptions in Middle-Class Spending
Globally, United States consumer confidence weakened significantly to pessimistic region in September 2024, with the Consumer Confidence Index falling to 98.7 from 105.6 in August 2024, marking the largest drop since August 2021. Concerns about job security, reduced hours, and fewer job openings contributed to the decline. Meanwhile, US Purchasing Manager’s Index indicates a third […]
Macroeconomic Monitor September 2024 – Navigating Economic Challenges: Growth and Headwinds Across Key Global Economies
The US economy showed strong GDP growth in Q1 2024, driven by personal and government spending, while manufacturing contracted in August with a PMI of 47.9, signaling weaker demand and a potential slowdown in production. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve implemented a 50-bps rate cut in September to support growth amid inflation stabilization and slowing job […]
Macroeconomic Monitor August 2024 – Global Economic Uncertainty: Balancing Growth and Risks Across Major Economies
The U.S. economy is growing steadily, but inflation is easing slightly, indicating the impact of ongoing Federal Reserve policies. The labor market is showing signs of slowing, which could affect future spending. The Eurozone is seeing modest growth, but Germany’s economic difficulties and slowing manufacturing are causing concerns. Inflation is rising slightly, and overall economic […]
Fenomena Penurunan Kelas Menengah di Indonesia: Brief Overview dari Dampak pada Sektor Asuransi
Jumlah populasi dan daya beli kelas menengah Indonesia terus tergerus pada periode pasca-pandemi. Hal ini ditunjukkan oleh penurunan proporsi kelas menengah dan peningkatan proporsi calon kelas menengah dan rentan serta menurunnya kontribusi konsumsi kelas menengah terhadap keseluruhan konsumsi masyarakat. Fenomena ini memiliki implikasi yang besar terhadap industri asuransi jiwa dan asuransi umum. Salah satu dampak […]
Snapshot of ESG Investing in Indonesia’s Stock and Bond Market
• ESG-related stock indices in Indonesia, such as the IDX ESG Leaders and SRI-KEHATI, do not always perform better than the overall market both in terms of earnings (ROE) and price (cumulative price change and 12M trailing price performance). However, they have lower overall ESG risk which may serve as a useful hedge against long-term […]
Indonesia-China Economic Relationship: How to Mitigate the Potential Downturn?
China is expected to experience an economic slowdown in the years to come, stemming from several factors including but not limited to high debt burden, property crisis, intensifying government control, and aging population. Given the entanglement to the Chinese economy in terms of international trade and investment, Indonesia must pursue new growth avenues in the […]
Navigating Turbulent Waters: The Shipping Industry and Global Economic Uncertainty
The conflict in the Middle East has flared up once more. On April 14th 2024, Iran launched an attack on Israel as retaliation for Israel’s attack on their embassy earlier in April. The escalation intensified geopolitical tensions in the region following the Red Sea crisis caused by Houthi rebels earlier this year. The escalating tensions […]
The Impact of Various Shocks to Indonesia’s Bond Yield: Lag-Augmented Local-Projection (LP)
This IFG Progress Digest is the follow-up of Economic Bulletin (EB) – Issue 44 Indonesia’s Yield Curve In 2024: Machine Learning & Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) Model where we explore as to how macroeconomic shocks influence government bond yield; We found that our four estimation scenarios for 10-year government bond yield do indeed align with […]
Historical Lessons on 1970s-1980s Oil Shocks As a Consequence of Middle East Conflicts
Historical oil shocks offer valuable insights for contemporary policymaking. The evolving nature of global energy markets and geopolitics necessitates adaptive strategies to navigate the complexities of resource-dependent economies and global market fluctuations. The 1970s-1980s oil shocks, caused by Middle East conflicts, challenged existing economic policies and led to strategic changes in energy dependence and geopolitical […]
