United States (U.S.):  The U.S. economy remains resilient, with strong services activity and improving inflation providing important buffers, but leading indicators increasingly point to a gradual moderation in domestic momentum. The key risks ahead are weaker consumer and labor-market dynamics, persistent tariff and energy-cost pressures, and continued weakness in external demand and manufacturing.

Euro Area: The Euro Area is showing early signs of economic stabilization, supported by improving business activity, resilient exports, and strengthening consumer confidence, but the recovery remains uneven and heavily reliant on domestic demand and external trade. Renewed energy-driven inflation and persistent weakness in consumption and external orders could constrain the recovery and limit the ECB’s policy flexibility in the near term.

China: China’s economy remains supported by exceptional export performance and strong external liquidity, but the widening gap between external resilience and weak domestic demand points to increasingly uneven growth. The key challenge ahead is whether policy support can restore household confidence, credit demand, and property-market stability sufficiently to broaden the recovery beyond the export sector.

Indonesia: Indonesia enters H2 2026 with a relatively resilient domestic growth engine, supported by government spending, investment, accommodative credit conditions, and improving manufacturing activity, but with early signs of softer household demand and moderating overall momentum. The key macroeconomic challenge is therefore shifting toward external resilience, as widening current-account pressures, elevated energy costs, and Rupiah volatility could increasingly constrain policy space unless domestic demand, capital inflows, and external financing conditions remain supportive.