Indonesia’s Stock Market Dynamics in 2025: Does Free Float Influence Stock Price Movements?
The Jakarta Composite Index started 2025 below its reference level, bottomed slightly below 6,000 in March–mid April 2025, then recovered into the 6,600 – 7,000 range before consolidating mid July 2025. A decisive breakout occurred in late July 2025, followed by an orderly uptrend through August–November 2025 with the index spending most of the period […]
Measuring Short-Rate Dynamics in Indonesia: IndONIA, Spreads, and Out-of-Sample Accuracy
This study develops a practical forecast for IndONIA 1-month at quarter end and identifies the forces that shape its path. A harmonized quarterly dataset from CEIC and Bloomberg underpins the analysis, with series aligned to common timestamps, units, and currency conventions and checked against source releases. The baseline uses SARIMAX and Spread Analysis to map […]
Gold as a Hedging and Alternative Investment Instrument: An Empirical Analysis Using Mean-Variance Optimization
The study evaluates whether gold is a suitable and effective portfolio asset for Indonesia, focusing on its roles as hedge, safe haven, and diversifier. It frames the question in an Indonesia-centric setting, so results translate into allocation policy and product design. A unified monthly dataset from CEIC and Bloomberg underpins the analysis. The study links […]
Decoding Global Portfolio Investment Flow Post-COVID19 Pandemic: Does Market Efficiency Matter?
In this paper, we try to uncover the pattern of global portfolio investment flow after the COVID-19 pandemic. Particularly, we are interested to see whether or not the majority of portfolio investments go to inefficient markets during this period. Based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) by Fama (1970), investors should go to weak-form (inefficient) […]
The Impact of Various Shocks to Indonesia’s Bond Yield: Lag-Augmented Local-Projection (LP)
This IFG Progress Digest is the follow-up of Economic Bulletin (EB) – Issue 44 Indonesia’s Yield Curve In 2024: Machine Learning & Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) Model where we explore as to how macroeconomic shocks influence government bond yield; We found that our four estimation scenarios for 10-year government bond yield do indeed align with […]
Indonesia’s Yield Curve In 2024: Machine Learning & Dynamic Nelson Siegel (DNS) Model
The term structure of the Yield Curve is one of the most essential tools in financial economics. All agents, both government and private firms, set them as a benchmark for implementing their policy and business decision, respectively. The yield curve can be one of the reasons for prosperous firms/countries or their declines (as evident in […]
Has the insurance industry anticipated possible drawbacks of digital currencies?
Authors: [1] Ibrahim Kholilul Rohman, [2] Afif Luviyanto The rapid advancement of digital transformation has spurred the adoption of technology across various sectors, including the use of crypto assets and other digital currencies that might replicate traditional fiat money soon. This has led central banks worldwide, including Indonesia, to introduce Central Bank Digital Currency […]
Indonesia’s Exchange Rate: Fundamental Value & Path
Indonesia’s small-open economy is highly susceptible to external shocks, affecting Rupiah (IDR), considerably. Episodes like the Asian Financial Crisis and recent monetary tightening post COVID-19 have exposed the vulnerability of rupiah, often making it one of the most adversely affected emerging market currencies. Bank Indonesia’s mandate as written in The Law of The Republic of […]
Can Inflation Be Better Measured With AI?
Tingginya tekanan inflasi yang terjadi di berbagai negara menimbulkan kekhawatiran bagi seluruh pihak, baik regulator hingga pelaku bisnis. Fenomena ini dapat menurunkan daya beli hingga menekan performa perekonomian, termasuk sektor asuransi; Proyeksi inflasi dengan menggunakan Artificial Intelligence (AI) menunjukkan hasil yang cukup baik. Angka tersebut dapat berperan sebagai Early Warning System (EWS) dalam mengambil keputusan […]
Are We Out of The Woods Yet?
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal ke-4 2023 mencatatkan level tertinggi semenjak 2013, akan tetapi dengan struktur yang hampir setengahnya didorong oleh komponen Net Export dan Konsumsi Rumah Tangga yang masih lesu. Program hilirisasi dan Undang-Undang Cipta Kerja (UUCK) memiliki peran penting guna menjadi sumber baru pertumbuhan ekonomi yang kuat dan sustain
